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一 | Editor's Note:
August 15 marked the 81st anniversary of Japan's announcement of its unconditional surrender. Eighty-one years on, Japan, the defeated aggressor in World War II (WWII), has not only failed to conduct a thorough reckoning with its wartime aggression, but has instead intensified its drive to expand military power. In its newly released 2026 Defense White Paper on August 4, Japan says that "defense business not only possesses a high degree of public value by directly contributing to the protection of citizens' lives, but also contributes to Japan's economic growth through ripple effects into the civilian sector."
This line of argument, along with Japan's defense policies in recent years, in fact reflects a form of "military Keynesianism" - the use of military spending as a means to stimulate overall economic development. However, this logic of "trying to boost the economy through military buildup" has faced widespread skepticism inside Japan. Some scholars have also warned that Japan pursued a similar policy during WWII, which led to the expansion of the military-industrial complex (MIC) and, in objective terms, fueled the scale of Japan's war of aggression, bringing profound suffering to the peoples of Asia and the world.

People take part in a protest march in Tokyo, opposing politicians making ritual offerings to or visiting the notorious Yasukuni Shrine, on August 15, 2026. Photo: cnsphoto
Pursuing a military Keynesian path
Japan's 2026 Defense White Paper, at 598 pages, has set a record as the longest in history. More alarming than its length, however, is the document's first-ever explicit definition of the development of the defense industry as an effective means of promoting "economic growth."
"The white paper 'stresses that investment in defense benefits the wider economy and people's lives,' according to a Defense Ministry presentation document," reported Reuters on August 4. "That message aligns with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's broader use of strategic state spending in an effort to drive economic growth," Reuters commented. Previously, The Asahi Shimbun warned in an opinion piece that this entanglement of defense buildup with economic policy will, over time, slide into "military Keynesianism."
"Military Keynesianism" refers to the use of military spending as a tool to stimulate overall economic development. Since the Takaichi administration took office, Japan has been expanding its domestic defense market through year-on-year increases in the defense budget, while at the same time opening up international sales channels for defense production by relaxing export controls - thereby systematically pursuing a military Keynesian path.
In fiscal 2026, Japan's defense budget for the first time exceeded 9 trillion yen ($56.5 billion). Its defense-related spending has already reached 2 percent of GDP, according to The Japan Times. This not only means Japan's defense budget has risen for 14 consecutive years, but also indicates that the government is using fiscal stimulus to artificially create a large and relatively stable "arms market." The resulting closed-loop logic is clear: the government increases defense spending to expand procurement; defense companies receive orders and scale up production; and, through industrial-chain spillovers, related industries also expand output.
As Japan's new Defense White Paper says, higher defense expenditures will not only significantly increase orders in the defense industry, but also reinforce the defense production base through measures such as introducing mechanisms to assess corporate efforts and calculate appropriate profits for companies. These measures, the paper claims, are expected to generate economic ripple effects, "as well as technological ripple effects into the civilian sector."
What is even more alarming is that Japan is systematically removing the institutional barriers to the growth of its defense industry.
One long-standing challenge in postwar Japan has been the limited size of its domestic defense market and restrictions on arms exports, which have kept defense firms' profits relatively low and prompted some major companies to withdraw from parts of the military supply business, observers pointed out.
In 2022, however, Japan elevated the defense industry to a national strategic priority in its three key security documents, National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy and Defense Buildup Program. In 2023, it enacted the Act on Enhancing Defense Production and Technology Bases, allowing the government to sustain and reinforce defense manufacturing through subsidies, capital investment and other measures. And in April this year, the Takaichi administration formally lifted the ban on exports of lethal weapons, fully opening the door for Japan's defense industry to enter global markets.
Together, these moves show that Japan is no longer content with relying on its Self-Defense Forces' limited procurement needs. It seeks to turn itself into a global arms supplier. This will inevitably intensify the regional arms race and seriously destabilize the security landscape in East Asia, warned some experts reached by the Global Times.
Of particular concern is that the focus of Japan's military Keynesianism has shifted from traditional weapons such as guns and artillery, to high-tech fields including artificial intelligence (AI) and drones, with an explicit emphasis on civil-military integration. Japan's new Defense White Paper places special emphasis on AI and unmanned systems, which are expected to become central issues in the year-end revision of its three key security documents.
Widespread criticism and concern
Japan's bid to jolt economic growth through higher military spending amounts to little more than a wishful gamble that "guns for butter" can be turned on its head. But when the fiscal question of "where will the money come from?" collides with public anxiety over "where is people's livelihood headed?", voices from international media outlets to Japanese scholars, lawmakers and ordinary citizens alike, are warning that the narrative of arms-led prosperity is not only unlikely to work, but could also drag Japan's economy into dangerous territory, observers noted.
Japan's fiscal expenditure faces "competing demands on the public purse," "but Takaichi has yet to explain clearly how she would pay for a further expansion without adding pressure on Japan's already stretched public finances," Reuters said on August 4.
In a Japanese-language editorial piece on August 8, The Asahi Shimbun pushed the debate further toward livelihoods, saying that military expansion would place a direct strain on the daily lives of Japanese people. The piece also cited a United Nations study saying that reallocating the same resources to education and healthcare rather than the military could generate more jobs. The International Monetary Fund has also warned that rising defense spending may, in the medium term, increase economic vulnerabilities, including through wider fiscal deficits, it said.
Opposition within Japan's academic circles runs equally fierce. Yuko Tanaka, a professor emeritus at Hosei University, argues the Takaichi administration's military buildup policies are driving Japan's economy toward collapse. The continuous depreciation of the yen and climbing government bond yields have rendered its "responsible proactive fiscal policies" unsustainable in the eyes of markets. If military expansion takes precedence over people's livelihoods, Japan's economy will fall into prolonged stagnation and recession, culminating in bankruptcy, Tanaka told the Global Times.
Strong criticism also echoes across Japan's political arena. House of Representatives member Joji Yamamoto accused the Takaichi administration of doubling defense spending and lifting bans on weapons exports, while shifting healthcare costs onto patients and eroding elderly care systems. If left unchecked, Japan will gradually turn into a nation sustained by the arms trade, seriously violating people's right to subsistence guaranteed by law, Yamamoto told the Global Times.
A risky gamble

Military Keynesianism is not only unlikely to sustain long-term economic growth in Japan, but also carries hidden security risks. Koji Sonoda, deputy editor at The Asahi Shimbun's Political News Section, recently cautioned that if defense budget expansion, initially justified by a deteriorating security environment, comes instead to serve the goal of economic growth through industrial promotion, the risk grows that spending will lose any effective restraint.
History has already proven this point. The global economic depression of 1929 triggered the Showa Depression in Japan, pushing the country's economy to the brink of collapse. At the time, rather than pursuing structural reforms, Japan's political and military leadership shifted the national economy onto a wartime footing, using military spending to boost demand and mask unemployment.
Meng Mingming, assistant researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times that in 1932, Korekiyo Takahashi, Japan's then Finance Minister, rolled out stimulus policies including yen depreciation and expanded fiscal outlays. Massive military spending paired with public works projects lifted domestic demand and enabled Japan to recover from the recession earlier than many nations. Takahashi became known as "Japan's Keynes."
However, the prosperity driven by fiscal deficits and military-industrial expansion was ultimately a shortsighted fix. Meng pointed out that, first, while wartime demand boosted Japan's heavy chemical and weapons manufacturing sectors to some extent, most military output was removed from the social reproduction cycle and constituted sheer waste. Second, heavy chemical industries relied heavily on resources such as oil, which Japan lacked domestically. This created a vicious cycle: military demand expanded heavy industrial capacity; that expansion increased Japan's dependence on overseas resources and markets; rising resource needs drove further military expansion to secure supply chains; and that expansion in turn required even more defense spending, further militarizing the economy. Finally, a coalition of interest formed among heavy industrial capitalists, emerging zaibatsu and the military. Military adventurism was no longer driven solely by the armed forces, but was backed by industrial and financial power.
People hold placards reading

People hold placards reading "No war" and "Stop constitutional revision, military expansion" during the Grand Constitution Rally 2026 to mark Constitution Memorial Day in Tokyo on May 3, 2026. Photo: vcgOnce the narrative that "military demand brings prosperity" gained mainstream acceptance, cutting military spending became a political taboo. Takahashi later sought to rein in military budgets and was assassinated in the February 26 Incident of 1936. His successor as finance minister, Eiichi Baba, treated military expansion as a long-term necessity. After the Lugou Bridge Incident in 1937, Japan enacted the National Mobilization Law in 1938, ushering in a full wartime system. "History shows the defense industry is never a silver bullet for economic prosperity," Meng said. Growth driven by arms expansion only leads to economic distortion, depletion of national strength and eventual self-destruction, he said.
Currently, many Japanese citizens have recognized the dangers of the Takaichi administration's policies and taken to the streets to protest.
Kazuo Adachi, a sexagenarian, told the Global Times in Japan that behind the administration's claim that the defense industry fuels growth lies the profit motive of the military-industrial complex. From policy deregulation launched under the Abe administration to accelerated implementation under the Takaichi administration, the path of military expansion catering to arms capital is akin to poison, fraught with alarming risks.
Marin Toyosu, a member of Japan's Generation Z, said the Takaichi administration's aggressive push for war preparedness essentially hides a self-serving agenda under the slogan of a "virtuous cycle between security and the economy." It abandons vulnerable groups to benefit a small circle of arms capitalists and represents an administration bent on stoking conflict.
"This military expansion agenda harms Japanese citizens and endangers people across the world," she noted.
Tatara Satoshi, an anti-war activist, pointed out that the Takaichi administration hypes up the "China threat" to justify military buildup while pushing the flawed argument that the defense industry can boost the economy.
This does not reflect the genuine aspirations of Japanese society or ordinary citizens. "Japanese people do not want war with China. They should unite to firmly oppose efforts to advance military expansion by stoking tensions and overstating supposed economic benefits," he said.
Global Times
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二 | 　　8月25日上午，由济南城市建设集团投资建设，中铁十四局、济南城建集团公司承建的济南黄岗路黄河隧道建成通车。　　作为世界最大直径水下盾构隧道，济南黄岗路黄河隧道的通车，将有效压缩主城区与新旧动能转换起步区之间的通勤时间，进一步促进黄河南北两岸的经济交流与合作。　　赋能“北起”战略，为起步区建设注入强劲动能　　黄岗路黄河隧道的建成通车，是济南深入实施“北起”战略、加速新旧动能转换起步区建设的重要工程之一，其意义远超一条交通通道本身。济南黄岗路黄河隧道建成通车　　黄岗路穿黄隧道工程南起蓝翔中路，向北依次下穿二环北路、绕城北高速、南岸大堤、黄河、北岸大堤、鹊山水库沉沙池，出地面后设置收费站，终点与在建G309互通立交相衔接。项目全长约5.75公里，单洞双层布置，设计时速60公里。其中，盾构段长约3.3公里，采用开挖直径达17.5米的“山河号”盾构机施工，上层为自南向北通行方向，下层为自北向南通行方向。济南黄岗路黄河隧道建成通车　　黄岗路黄河隧道通车后，将进一步促进济南拥河发展，促进黄河南北两岸的经济交流与合作，成为打通人员往来、物流畅通与经济融合的“快速走廊”。　　据了解，由济南城市建设集团负责建设的“四桥四隧”工程已完成“四桥三隧”建设任务，济南航天大道黄河隧道(Ⅰ期)目前已双线贯通。随着剩余工程的完工，我市跨黄通道布局将进一步完善，持续拓展济南城市发展空间，助力起步区吸引更多产业项目和优质资源集聚。济南黄岗路黄河隧道建成通车　　攻克施工难题，17米级盾构穿越地上悬河　　黄河济南段是典型的“地上悬河”，河床比南岸城区高出5米左右。项目采用开挖直径17.5米的泥水平衡盾构机“山河号”进行施工，随着盾构机直径的增加，其制造难度、施工难度和风险系数也呈几何式增长。　　“山河号”盾构机在施工中需要先后下穿黄河大堤、黄河等敏感地区，最深覆土厚度达49.2米，最大水土压力6.3巴，掘进过程中，盾构机需要长距离穿越粉质黏土，最大硬度达41兆帕。

三 | 项目团队依托丰富穿黄经验，为“山河号”盾构机创新应用大开口率带压复合型刀盘，装配伸缩式主驱动、开挖仓伸缩摄像头等先进装备，并搭载“五官一脑”智能化装备系统，构建盾构掘进的“智慧大脑”，实现全流程感知、预警与智能决策。济南黄岗路黄河隧道建成通车　　面对钙质结核、黏糕状地层等难题，研发应用金刚石刀具、碎石机、双管路液压采石装置等，破解钙质结核等不良地质带来的施工难题，黄河下首次实现全程3.3公里连续掘进不换刀，保障了盾构机高效掘进。此外，针对特大断面管片上浮技术难题，项目团队应用第四代同步双液注浆技术及同步注浆检测设备，保障管片施工安全。施工过程中实现最高日进尺18米、月进尺426米，创造了17米级盾构施工的世界纪录。济南黄岗路黄河隧道建成通车　　沉淀可复制经验，为同类型工程提供解决方案　　黄岗路黄河隧道的建设不仅刷新了工程纪录，更形成了一套可借鉴、可推广的技术与管理经验，对未来大直径、穿江越河、邻近水源地的同类型盾构工程具有重要示范价值。　　黄岗路黄河隧道单洞双层布置，充分利用了地下空间资源，盾构一次掘进即可实现双向通行，既节省地下空间，又减少约15%投资。同时，隧道内部创新设计4.2米净高，可以满足通行公交、消防、管理及救援车辆等要求，极大地提高通行能力。项目的成功实践，为资源集约、投资可控的城市跨江越河通道建设提供了新的结构范式。济南黄岗路黄河隧道建成通车　　隧道北岸紧邻济南一级水源地，对泥浆处理的环保要求极为严苛，必须实现零污染、零外排。针对泥浆处理难题，项目自主首创“絮凝+提浓+压滤”泥浆处理工艺，每日泥浆处理效率提高50%，滤饼的含水率降低至30%以下，实现泥浆高效处理以及尾水的循环利用和零外排，达成效率与环保的双赢做到了绿色施工、环保施工。

四 | 这一绿色处置路径，为沿江沿河、邻近水源保护区的盾构工程提供了可借鉴经验。

五 | 济南黄岗路黄河隧道建成通车　　施工过程中，项目先后攻克开挖面稳定控制、穿越悬河大堤沉降控制、特大断面管片上浮控制、海量泥浆绿色高效处理等28项技术难题。累计完成科技论文30余篇，申报发明专利、实用新型专利22件，总结形成17米级盾构施工成套技术体系，进一步提升我国特大直径盾构的建造能力和技术水平，有力推动我国盾构隧道技术实现跨越式发展。济南黄岗路黄河隧道建成通车　　以国家最高科学技术奖获得者、中国工程院院士钱七虎为组长的专家组指出，隧道建造过程高度智能化、机械化、绿色化技术的实施，将推动我国盾构隧道技术往前迈出一大步，隧道的建成对我国水下交通隧道建设具有里程碑意义。